Report 2026:
The Impact of Armed Conflicts on Global Trade and Development
Arab-European Center of Human Rights and International Law (AECHRIL)
Date of Issue: 21 March 2026
Summary
This report analyzes the impact of armed conflicts on global trade flows and sustainable development, from a human rights perspective. It focuses on the legal, economic, and humanitarian consequences of disruptions to critical maritime routes, particularly in light of escalating tensions and military confrontations affecting the Strait of Hormuz.
The report highlights how violations of international law, including the obstruction of international navigation and the escalation of armed hostilities, directly undermine global trade stability, energy security, and the realization of economic and social rights.
1. Introduction
Armed conflicts remain one of the most significant threats to global economic stability and human development. In 2026, the escalation of military tensions involving major international actors has raised serious concerns regarding the safety of international trade routes and the integrity of global supply chains.
This report examines the implications of such conflicts, particularly in strategically vital regions, and assesses their impact on trade, development, and human rights protections.
2. Strategic Importance of Maritime Trade Routes
Global trade depends heavily on maritime transport, with approximately 80–90% of international trade conducted by sea. Among the most critical chokepoints is the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor for global energy supplies.
- Around one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through this route
- Any disruption leads to immediate global economic consequences
- Developing countries are disproportionately affected by supply shocks
The obstruction or militarization of such routes constitutes a major threat to global economic stability.
3. Case Study: Escalation of Conflict and Closure Risks in the Strait of Hormuz
Recent military escalation involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has heightened the risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Any partial or full closure of this passage would have far-reaching consequences:
- Sharp increases in global energy prices
- Disruption of supply chains
- Inflationary pressures affecting food and essential goods
- Economic instability in import-dependent countries
From a legal standpoint, restricting navigation in international straits raises serious concerns under international law.
4. International Legal Framework and Violations
The protection of international navigation and trade is governed by several legal instruments, including:
- United Nations Charter (prohibition of the use of force)
- United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (freedom of navigation and transit passage)
- World Trade Organization principles of free and predictable trade
- United Nations General Assembly resolutions on peaceful settlement of disputes
- International Labour Organization standards protecting workers affected by economic disruption
Violations may include:
- Use of force affecting civilian infrastructure
- Restrictions on international navigation
- Failure to resolve disputes through peaceful means
- Economic coercion impacting civilian populations
5. Human Rights Implications
Armed conflicts and disruptions to global trade have direct and indirect impacts on human rights:
5.1 Right to Development
Disruptions in trade hinder economic growth, particularly in developing countries, undermining the right to development.
5.2 Economic and Social Rights
Rising prices of fuel, food, and essential goods affect:
- The right to an adequate standard of living
- The right to food
- The right to health
5.3 Inequality and Vulnerable Populations
The effects of trade disruption disproportionately impact:
- Low-income populations
- Fragile and conflict-affected states
- Import-dependent economies
6. Impact on Global Trade and Development
The disruption of strategic trade routes leads to:
- Supply Chain Fragmentation: Delays and increased costs
- Trade Diversion: Shifts toward less efficient routes
- Investment Uncertainty: Reduced foreign direct investment
- Global Market Volatility: Fluctuations in energy and commodity prices
Institutions such as United Nations Conference on Trade and Development have repeatedly emphasized the vulnerability of developing economies to such shocks.
7. Governance Failures and Accountability Gaps
The escalation of armed conflicts reflects significant governance failures at both national and international levels:
- Weak enforcement of international law
- Limited accountability for violations
- Ineffective multilateral dispute resolution mechanisms
- Politicization of economic and trade relations
These gaps undermine trust in the international system and weaken global governance structures.
8. Recommendations
The report calls for urgent international action:
- Immediate de-escalation of armed conflicts through diplomatic means
- Respect for international law, particularly freedom of navigation under UNCLOS
- Strengthening multilateral cooperation to protect global trade routes
- Establishing accountability mechanisms for violations affecting trade and civilians
- Supporting vulnerable economies through international assistance and trade facilitation
- Enhancing the role of international organizations in conflict prevention and economic stabilization
9. Conclusion
The events of 2026 demonstrate the fragile interdependence between global trade, governance, and peace. Armed conflicts not only threaten geopolitical stability but also disrupt economic systems and undermine fundamental human rights.
Ensuring the protection of international trade routes and adherence to international law is essential for maintaining global stability and promoting sustainable development.
The Arab-European Center of Human Rights and International Law reaffirms its commitment to advocating for peace, justice, and the rule of law, and calls upon the international community to take decisive action to prevent further escalation and protect the rights and well-being of all populations.